Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO) has attributed Nigeria’s ongoing power outages affecting households and businesses nationwide to inadequate gas supply to thermal power plants.
In a statement posted on its official X handle on Friday and titled “Declining Power Output Attributable to Generation Shortfalls and Gas Supply Limitations,” NISO said the sustained drop in electricity generation is largely due to severe fuel constraints on the national grid.
According to the operator, average available generation is currently about 4,300 megawatts — significantly below the country’s installed capacity.
The disruption began in early February following scheduled maintenance on critical gas infrastructure by Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and Seplat Energy, which temporarily interrupted gas deliveries to several thermal plants and triggered a nationwide decline in output. The situation has persisted amid continued gas supply limitations.
NISO explained that thermal plants — which account for the bulk of Nigeria’s electricity generation — require about 1,629.75 million standard cubic feet (mmscf) of gas per day to operate optimally. However, as of February 23, 2026, actual supply stood at roughly 692.00 mmscf per day, less than 43% of the required volume.
“The available gas supply represents less than 43 per cent of the required volume, resulting in constrained generation output,” the statement said, noting that reduced output has led to lower energy allocations to Distribution Companies (DisCos).
Because thermal plants form the backbone of the grid, any disruption in gas supply directly impacts generation capacity and overall electricity distribution. With supply falling far short of demand, NISO confirmed it has had to implement load shedding to stabilise the system.
“When total system generation drops significantly, the Independent System Operator must implement load shedding across the system, while dispatching available energy in line with the NERC MYTO allocation percentages to maintain grid stability and prevent disturbances,” the statement added.
The operator apologised for the inconvenience to consumers and market participants and said it is working with stakeholders to restore normal supply once gas availability improves.
Nigeria’s power sector remains heavily reliant on gas-fired plants, which provide more than 70% of grid electricity, while hydropower contributes the remainder. This dependence means disruptions caused by maintenance shutdowns, production challenges, pipeline vandalism, pricing disputes, or payment shortfalls within the electricity value chain frequently trigger nationwide shortages.
Although recent reforms separated the system operator from the Transmission Company of Nigeria to improve grid management and transparency, generation levels remain closely tied to fuel availability.
With national peak demand estimated at over 20,000MW, the current average generation of 4,300MW highlights the significant supply gap facing Africa’s most populous nation. Sustained improvement, analysts say, will depend not only on regulatory reforms but also on securing reliable and commercially viable gas supply arrangements for thermal plants. Until then, power rationing and outages are likely to persist across the country.
