In May 2025, the Corporate Accountability and Public Participation Africa (CAPPA) released a new report titled “Junk on Our Plates: Exposing Deceptive Marketing of Unhealthy Foods Across Seven States in Nigeria.” The document called for an aggressive overhaul of Nigeria’s Sugar-Sweetened Beverage (SSB) tax, demanding an increase from the current ₦10 to ₦130 per litre. The report accused beverage companies of using culturally resonant advertising to manipulate consumers and tied rising rates of obesity, diabetes, and hypertension directly to SSB consumption.
However, a critical review of the report published by ThinkBusiness Africa, a strategic business intelligence and research firm, presents a more grounded and data-driven perspective. ThinkBusiness Africa, under the leadership of Dr. Ogho Okiti, is known for its rigorous analysis of Africa’s financial and macroeconomic landscapes. With a focus on economic intelligence, market trends, and policy evaluation, the organization offers a valuable lens through which to assess the broader implications of policy shifts like the proposed SSB tax increase.
In its counter-report, ThinkBusiness Africa challenges the analytical foundation of CAPPA’s recommendations, describing them as both “statistically inconsistent and economically risky.” According to the review, CAPPA draws its core conclusions from outdated or mismatched data, such as citing obesity trends among sedentary urban women while recommending policy interventions primarily targeting adolescent males—the demographic it identifies as consuming the most sugary beverages.
Furthermore, CAPPA’s assumption that the ₦10/litre SSB tax has failed to curb consumption or improve health outcomes is not backed by any published data. ThinkBusiness Africa highlights this gap, emphasizing that there has been no national assessment of the current tax’s effectiveness. “You cannot credibly propose a 1200 percent increase in any tax without first evaluating the impact of the existing policy,” says Dr. Ogho Okiti, CEO of ThinkBusiness Africa. “Policy decisions must be rooted in evidence, not just urgency. The risk of overreach is high—both in economic disruption and public trust.”
Dr. Okiti further outlined the complexity of Nigeria’s beverage industry, which spans large-scale manufacturers to informal retail vendors operating across rural and urban economies. In such a fragmented market, he warns, tax enforcement becomes difficult and often disproportionately affects small and medium enterprises. “There’s a tendency in some advocacy circles to treat sugar-sweetened beverages as the sole culprit in Nigeria’s nutritional challenges,” he adds. “But dietary health is influenced by a constellation of factors—urbanization, income, education, processed food consumption, and sedentary behavior. Singling out SSBs is reductionist.”
The economic burden of a higher SSB tax also cannot be ignored. Nigeria’s beverage producers already contend with steep fiscal obligations, including a 30 percent corporate income tax, 7.5 percent VAT, and a 3 percent tertiary education tax. According to PwC, this amounts to an effective tax burden of 45 percent on the sector. An additional ₦130/litre excise tax would not only intensify inflationary pressure on consumers but also threaten jobs across the manufacturing and distribution value chains.
Interestingly, Nigeria’s sugar consumption remains among the lowest in West Africa. The National Sugar Development Council reported that per capita sugar intake stood at just 6.9kg in 2018—a stark contrast to regional peers. This metric alone questions the portrayal of Nigeria as a sugar-saturated nation and casts doubt on the necessity of such an extreme policy response.
CAPPA’s model also forecasts a 29% drop in SSB consumption following a 39% retail price increase, citing youth as the most price-sensitive group. However, ThinkBusiness Africa critiques this projection for omitting potential consequences such as industry contraction, job losses, and a shrinking taxable base. Even the World Health Organization has refrained from listing SSB taxes as one of its “Best Buy” interventions, acknowledging that evidence of long-term cost-effectiveness remains inconclusive.
What’s missing, ThinkBusiness Africa argues, is a balanced and comprehensive policy approach. Instead of focusing solely on taxation, Nigeria should prioritize enforcement of existing regulations—particularly on product labeling, trans fats, and misleading health claims. Broader interventions like school-based nutrition education, community wellness campaigns, and promotion of physical activity are equally essential to any meaningful reduction in non-communicable diseases.
To design effective and equitable public policy, Dr. Okiti emphasizes the need for better data. “Nigeria urgently requires a Total Dietary Intake Study to assess where calories and nutrients come from across all demographics,” he says. “This would provide the evidence base for multi-sectoral interventions, rather than relying on narrow or emotive narratives.” He also recommends that any new tax proposal undergo a Regulatory Impact Assessment to evaluate potential consequences on employment, pricing, and public health before being implemented.
Finally, transparency remains a sticking point. Since the introduction of the SSB tax in 2022, there has been no public accounting of the revenues it has generated or how those funds have been used to support health systems. ThinkBusiness Africa warns that without transparency and earmarked spending, the tax risks losing its moral and fiscal legitimacy. “If public health is the stated goal, then Nigerians deserve to know how their money is being used to achieve it,” Dr. Okiti states.
While CAPPA’s advocacy brings attention to Nigeria’s urgent health challenges, ThinkBusiness Africa’s response offers a sobering reminder of what’s at stake. Health policy cannot be detached from economic reality. As Nigeria navigates rising inflation, youth unemployment, and sluggish manufacturing growth, it must avoid what Dr. Okiti calls “trigger-happy fiscalism”—policy driven more by optics than outcomes.