Energy analysts and downstream operators have cautioned that Nigerians could face another hike in petrol and diesel prices if global crude oil climbs beyond $90 per barrel amid rising tensions between the United States and Iran.
The warning follows renewed volatility in the international oil market triggered by escalating hostilities in the Middle East. Industry stakeholders say that despite Nigeria’s growing refining capacity, domestic fuel prices remain exposed to global crude price movements.
Across major cities, petrol currently sells between N824 and N880 per litre, depending on location and distribution costs, after the Dangote Petroleum Refinery reduced its ex-depot price of Premium Motor Spirit from N799 to N774 per litre in February 2026.
However, five energy experts who spoke separately said the unfolding US–Iran crisis could significantly alter the outlook. They warned that heightened risks around the Strait of Hormuz — a critical global oil transit route — are already adding a geopolitical risk premium to crude prices.
Over the weekend, crude prices jumped nearly 10 per cent amid reports that some oil majors suspended tanker movements near the waterway due to security concerns. As of Sunday night, Brent crude was trading at $72.87 per barrel, West Texas Intermediate at $67.02, while Nigeria’s Bonny Light stood at $78.62. Analysts say prices could approach or exceed $90 if the crisis intensifies.
Kelvin Emmanuel, Chief Executive Officer of Dairy Hills, noted that Nigeria remains vulnerable because a significant share of the Dangote refinery’s crude feedstock is imported. According to him, the refinery processes roughly 18 million barrels monthly, with about two-thirds sourced from abroad.
He argued that any sustained spike in crude prices would increase refining costs and narrow margins, ultimately leading to higher pump prices for petrol and diesel. He also pointed to rising war-risk insurance premiums for vessels operating near the Gulf as an added cost factor.
Similarly, Olatide Jeremiah, CEO of Petroleumprice.ng, said Nigeria’s dependence on imported crude and refined products exposes the country to global shocks. While the Petroleum Industry Act prioritises domestic refineries in crude allocation, he said more than 60 per cent of Dangote’s feedstock is still sourced internationally.
“If crude were supplied entirely in naira from domestic production, global volatility would have limited impact,” he said. “But with substantial imports, local fuel prices will inevitably reflect global oil movements.”
Jeremiah added that although higher oil prices may boost government revenues, consumers are likely to bear the brunt at the pump if tensions escalate further. He described the situation as a wake-up call for authorities to increase production, curb oil theft, and ensure adequate crude supply to local refineries.
Energy law expert Dayo Ayoade of the University of Lagos said Nigeria can no longer shield consumers from international price swings following the removal of fuel subsidies. According to him, any threat to supply routes in the Gulf region — whether real or perceived — is enough to drive prices upward in a market now operating on commercial principles.
In contrast, petroleum economist Professor Emeritus Wumi Iledare urged caution against panic. He noted that today’s oil market is more diversified and flexible than during past crises such as the 1973 oil embargo or the Gulf War. While geopolitical tensions may temporarily inflate prices, he said market fundamentals remain stronger and more transparent than in previous decades.
Chinedu Ukadike, National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, said marketers are closely monitoring developments and will adjust based on market realities. He assured Nigerians of continued efforts to maintain supply stability.
The crisis intensified after coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iran, prompting retaliatory attacks and heightening fears of a broader regional conflict. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries more than 20 per cent of global oil shipments, has long been viewed as a potential flashpoint capable of triggering supply disruptions and price spikes.
Meanwhile, members of the OPEC+ alliance — including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, the UAE, Algeria and Kazakhstan — announced a production increase of 206,000 barrels per day effective in April. However, analysts warn that the adjustment may be too small to offset a major disruption if shipping through the Gulf is significantly affected.
Market watchers say the direction of oil prices in the coming days will largely depend on whether tensions de-escalate or widen further. For Nigeria, experts stress that boosting crude output, addressing theft and sabotage, and ensuring consistent domestic supply to refineries remain crucial to insulating the economy from future global oil shocks.