Petrol importation continued to dominate fuel consumption in Nigeria in 2025, accounting for 62.47% of the country’s total Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) use, according to a report by The PUNCH.
This reliance persisted even as domestic refineries, particularly the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, ramped up production and distribution, alongside state-owned refineries and several modular facilities. The latest midstream and downstream sector factsheet from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) shows that total petrol consumption in Nigeria reached approximately 18.97 billion litres in 2025, with imported fuel supplying 11.85 billion litres. Domestic refineries contributed 7.54 billion litres, or 37.53% of total consumption.
The data, calculated from daily average consumption and volumes delivered into the market, highlight Nigeria’s continued dependence on imports, despite Dangote Refinery’s gradual ramp-up.
Looking ahead, petrol import volumes are expected to fall significantly in 2026 if the federal government implements the planned 15% import tariff on PMS, approved by President Bola Tinubu.
For decades, Nigeria, Africa’s largest crude oil producer, relied almost entirely on imported petrol due to the prolonged underperformance of state-owned refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna. The situation shifted slightly in late 2024 with the commencement of the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery, anticipated to reduce import dependence and improve energy security.
Despite improvements in domestic supply throughout 2025, imports remained the primary source of petrol. The NMDPRA attributes this to factors including the gradual ramp-up of refining operations, crude supply arrangements, logistics constraints, and demand fluctuations following full deregulation of petrol pricing.
Domestic production grew steadily, with Dangote Refinery supplying an average of 17–32 million litres per day, totaling 7.54 billion litres for the year. This was slightly below the refinery’s annual benchmark of 7.87 billion litres, representing a 4.7% shortfall. Supply peaked in December at 32 million litres per day, signaling gradual stabilization.
Monthly petrol consumption fluctuated in 2025, rising from 1.60 billion litres in January to 1.97 billion litres in December, a 23.7% year-on-year increase. Imports mirrored these trends, remaining the dominant supply source, particularly in May and November, when they accounted for over 70% of monthly consumption. Domestic supply gradually increased but consistently trailed import volumes, narrowing the gap only toward the end of the year.
Since commencing operations in late 2024, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has claimed to exceed national petrol demand, with Group Chief Branding and Communications Officer Anthony Chiejina stating the plant loads over 45 million litres of PMS daily. Independent marketers confirmed that most supplies now come from Dangote, reducing the need for imports even during peak periods.
However, energy experts caution against declaring that imports have ended entirely. Professor Wumi Iledare noted that while domestic supply has improved, Nigeria’s market remains structured around import parity, and imports continue to act as a risk management tool for surges in demand, logistical disruptions, and refinery operational issues.
Similarly, petroleum analyst Jeremiah Olatide highlighted that domestic refining’s contribution to total petrol consumption has grown from under 5% in 2022 to about 40% in 2025—a significant milestone—but emphasized that consumption coverage must reach at least 70% locally to meaningfully reduce import dependence, stabilize the naira, and boost jobs. He added that increased crude allocation to Dangote Refinery could further lower imports, although conflicting production reports from stakeholders highlight persistent data challenges.
Overall, 2025 marked a turning point for Nigeria’s downstream sector, showing clear progress in domestic refining while highlighting the ongoing structural reliance on imports to meet national petrol demand.